Hello all!
Welcome to another edition of “What’s the Deal?”, the blog that transgresses borders.
In this post we’ll review the recent hostilities that led to the 6 week war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, two former Soviet Socialist Republics (SSRs) in the South Caucuses and the peace deal brokered by larger powers. We’ll also discuss the historical nature of the conflict and the geopolitical theater of the region in general which connects the conflicts to regional and global powers.
The Current:
On November 9th, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a peace deal, brokered by Russia, that ended hostilities with Azerbaijan. The agreement requires Armenia to withdraw its forces from a mountainous region within the borders of Azerbaijan called Nagorno-Karabakh and to cede land in this region back to the Azerbaijanis following two and a half decades of Armenian control.
The 2020 conflict began on September 27th and involved intense firefights, trench warfare, high-tech drone strikes and military air strikes before Russian peacekeepers were deployed to hold a cease-fire and broker an agreement.
News of the deal prompted celebration in Baku, the Azerbaijani capital, and consternation in Yerevan, the capital city of Armenia. Excitement abounded for Azerbaijanis for a victory that showcased their superior military might, strategic relations with Turkey, and regaining of territory and the potential for the return of thousands of displaced since the previous war in the 1990’s left Nagorno-Karabakh under Armenian control.
The Armenian people largely condemned their leader’s actions and protested outside the Prime Minister’s residence and even broke into the Parliament building and attacked its speaker. Armenians are outraged by the loss of gained territory from 1994 and express worry about the majority Armenian population living in the Nagorno-Karabakh area.
So what is it about this land and location that initiated this fight in 2020: Is it a new dispute that erupted in violence? Or is there a larger story based on the fractured history and complex geopolitical relations of the region?
The Second One
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020 was not new. Long simmering tensions over the area that both Azerbaijan and Armenia both claim have boiled to the surface many times in the past three decades. Just since 2016, 292 incidents of violence along the border have occurred.
While the 1990’s war to take Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia is seen as the reason behind the 2020 conflict, the reality goes much deeper then simply revenge or takeback. The historical complexities of the region play a much larger role in the origins of both nations’ actions.
Nagorno-Karabakh: Trading Places
The pre-modern histories of both Armenia and the Caucuses provide a fascinating and colorful history of Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) from ancient civilizations in a dizzying number of different names, kingdoms, and states that we won’t go into too much depth with here. Suffice it to say, that the South Caucuses region:
- Was for many centuries under the guise of larger empires to the South and East (including the Assyrians and later the Romans)
- Armenia developed its own kingdom that created its own language and writing and a strong cultural affinity with Christianity. N-K was part of a region called Artsakh, which Armenians still call the area.
- The Islamic Empire expanded into the Caucuses during the 8th Century forcing population and cultural changes.
- The Mongols also conquered the area in 13th century (like most of the Eastern Hemisphere) and gave the name that has stood til the present, Karabakh
(Nagorno has Russian etymological roots and means “mountains” while in Azeri it means “black garden”).
Acknowledging that I am brushing aside a few centuries, the pre-modern history of the N-K region does highlight the connections of the Caucus states to larger geopolitical players in two ways: economic and strategic value. The Caucuses hold immense importance as a vital commercial route (via the Caspian and Black Seas and connections to the Silk Road, and land spice trade routes) and a strategic through-way connecting Russia and Turkey to South Asia and the Middle East.
Between the 17th and 18th century, Turkey and Iran feuded continuously over the region such that the Iranian Panakh Ali-Khan established the Karabakh Khanate with a fortress at the city of Shusha (in modern day N-K) to defend it from Turkish invaders. In the 19th Century with the rise of the Russian Empire, the N-K region and the Caucuses came under Russian rule after a series of wars lasting many years between Russia and Persia (Iran). The Russian influence sparked thousands of Armenians to migrate to N-K from the region including from areas held by Ottoman Turkey while other ethnic groups including Azeri departed from the region.
During the Ottoman’s rule, Armenians living in Ottoman controlled territory were subject to persecutions including pogrom-like massacres in the late 1890s. During World War 1, under the pretext of war, radical nationalists in the Ittihadist Party (“Young Turks”) had gained the levers of Ottoman government and began to forcibly deport and then massacre Armenian people living in Ottoman Turkey.
This was the Armenian Genocide, a premeditated, organized, and focused extirpation of this minority perpetrated between 1915-16 leaving up to 1 million people killed with thousands of others migrating or hiding. Considered the world’s first modern / non-colonial genocide, the scar left indelible impressions on the Armenian people.
At the end of World War 1, the demise of the Ottoman Empire left much of its territorial possessions in the Near East in flux and the October Revolution and civil war had disrupted the Russian Empire’s territories and administrative structures. This left N-K being left disputed between the British, Ottomans and the new Soviet Union. The British eventually recognized a Muslim governor at Shusha and the post-war Paris Peace conference formally recognized N-K to be within the new republic of Azerbaijan’s borders. Though Shusha had been recognized by the Armenian people as an Armenian cultural center, following a brief uprising in Shusha, Armenians left that city to the Azeris and came to Stepanakert (the modern capital of N-K).
What’s a politburo to do?
The newborn Soviet Union’s decisions over the administration of the N-K region show the difficulties in neatly wrapping boundaries or sharing borders. While not going into too much detail (which is better explained in this chapter and this book by Charles King), the Soviet Union created two Soviet Socialist Republics (Armenia and Azerbaijan) but that had hotly contested overlapping territory including the N-K region and had a majority Armenian population inside of the Azerbaijani SSR. To mollify the Armenian SSR, N-K was made into an “autonomous oblast”, given that N-K’s denizens were nearly 80% Armenian. This kept N-K within Azerbaijani borders and severed a geographic connection with Armenia. This ‘loss’ of territory following nearly two years of local Bolshevik party negotiations in 1921 stayed with the Armenians as a sore spot.
Relative peace existed during the Soviet Era under the control of the larger power with less antagonism and conflict. The collapse of the USSR and the ensuing power vacuum, however, gave impetus to the N-K region to declare itself to be part of independent Armenia in the late 1980’s through a vote. While it overwhelmingly passed, the minority Azerbaijani people in N-K declared the vote invalid and boycotted the vote. This vote ultimately prompted the Armenians to invade Azerbaijan to claim the land around this region as Armenian and justified (Armenians say) the aggression as protection of minority Armenians from potential genocide.
This military invasion and war resulted in many thousands dead and the forced emigration of hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis who lived within N-K and surrounding provinces. The war was paused with a shaky cease-fire orchestrated by the UN in 1994 but left former Azerbaijani provinces under Armenian control around N-K, the border defended by trenches and barbed wire. Although the N-K region lies entirely within Azerbaijan, the Armenians were able to maintain land bridge connections West to Armenia and defend them. Many Azerbaijanis left Shusha following the war after being the largest contingent within that city.
The relative calm established during Soviet rule had disintegrated and a severe antagonism between peoples would leave the cease fire on shaky ground. Despite the cease-fire, flare ups of firefights, attacks on churches and mosques, small conflicts and escalations have occurred up until the present war making the N-K conflict the longest running in the former Soviet Union.
(Geo)Political Pressures Props Peoples in Proxy Fights
It would be overly simplified to say that the conflict and hatred boils down to religious differences. The N-K region has been part of both people’s history for centuries and both groups have claims to different sites within it such as Shusha (former Khanate fortress and home to many Azerbaijanis) and the Armenian history within the region from its original kingdom, Artsakh. The difficulty and aggression for claims is not unlike the challenging situation in the North Caucuses where conflict abounds in Chechyna, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, though these states are still under Russian dominion.
As noted in the historical background, the Caucuses region is strategically important as a gateway of Eurasia positioned between the Caspian and Black Seas. The area has also always been a vital trade and commercial route, but in modern times hosts an important newly constructed oil pipeline. Control of this region, therefore, offers power to control energy, commerce, and military strength. No wonder large powers have fought to control this area for millenia. This continues today but through alliances and trade deals from Turkey and Russia.
Russia has historical links to the Caucuses from the Soviet era and backs its fellow Christian nation (and former SSR) Armenia through a protective alliance. Turkey, meanwhile, backs its fellow Turkic people in Azerbaijan and has sold the Azerbaijani’s high tech military equipment, conducted extensive military drills and even provided mercenaries from Syria in the fight (although Russia has also sold equipment). It is in Turkey’s interest that the oil pipeline remain undisturbed and in control of its ally and fellow Islamic country. Previous peacekeepers (the UN, the U.S.) and others have taken a step back from the region leaving open the waxing influence of Russia and Turkey. While holding frequent talks to tamp down tensions, Ankara and Moscow are engaged in proxy wars in Syria and Libya too.
The aftermath of the 6 week war has big consequences in the long run for both countries. Armenia’s defeat and loss of territory is humiliating from a military and cultural pride standpoint, but more worrying for Yerevan is the large Armenian population within N-K that now is not within Armenian protection and control. Memories of the genocide a century ago still ring clear as an increasingly aggressive Turkey and its ally, Azerbaijan, regain control of land and borders lost in 1994.
Azerbaijanis meanwhile, celebrate the return of territory lost to them by Armenian aggression in the 1990s. Azerbaijanis are returning to land lost nearly thirty years ago in the latest example of the land of trading places while Armenians are leaving their homes in flames, burning them after attending one last church service.
Until the next autonomous oblast,
Your Faithful Historian,
Eric G. Prileson
Sources and Further Reads:
https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/nagorno-karabakh-conflict-visual-explainer
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54882564
https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkish-backed-syrian-fighters-join-armenian-azeri-conflict-11602625885